Theory of Change

Having identified priority objectives and priority sectors, you may well be in a good position to develop a Theory of Change (ToC). A ToC identifies within a topic a number of problems that have been identified, actions that will be taken to address these, the outputs from these actions and the impacts or outcomes expected as a result. It should also identify assumptions that underpin the ToC. This framework will also allow you to develop sensible metrics that support evaluate of the programme of activity.

A ToC should be developed collaboratively with a range of stakeholders involved in the topic including ideally representatives of those impacted by the problems. Doing so will ensure consensus on the long-term goals, help to describe any assumptions so that they can be tested, and explain any changes needed to achieve the long-term goals.

Useful resources:

• The Civil Service Analysis Function has a relatively simple guide to theory of change that can be helpful for people new to the methodology
• The popular online diagramming and planning tool Miro offers a ToC template.